Development of a Customer Profiling model to assist in case management and activation
Research has shown that the prevention of long-term unemployment is important from both economic and social perspectives. Long-term unemployed individuals suffer from skill erosion and encounter difficulty in re-entering employment. In the wider economy, welfare payments and lost revenue mean that long-term unemployment entails substantial financial costs.
In cooperation with the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the Department of Social and Family Affairs (DSFA) in Ireland, has through a longitudinal study commenced in 2006, been working to research and introduce a model of ‘profiling’ focused on early identification of those most at risk of becoming long-term unemployed.
The accuracy and predictive capacity of the model developed is high by international standards. It is particularly accurate in predicting outcomes at 12 months. At the 80 per cent cut off point (ie those estimated to have an 80 per cent chance of remaining unemployed) the model is 83 per cent accurate for males and 85 per cent accurate for females.
When operational, "model-based" customer profiling will result in more efficient, effective and economic interventions and a reduction in the length of time a person is unemployed.
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